New Delhi, Jun 23: India will hit a peak of 2.6 lakh COVID-19 active cases on July 15, according to the ‘most likely’ scenario, and a peak of 3.9 lakh cases on July 25 as per the SEIR model, a Times Fact-India Outbreak report says.
Tracking the COVID-19 pandemic in India for the past several weeks, the report showcases several pertinent data points which includes India’s possible peak points, state and city wise projections and active cases over a period of time and report follows a sophisticated and vigorous mathematical modelling.
Maharashtra has been projected to hit its peak of 82,723 active cases on July 5 and 1.1 lakh active cases as per the SEIR model, on July 17 while Delhi has been projected to hit its peak of 47,461 active cases and 47,159 active cases on July 4.
According to the report, the State of Tamil Nadu has been projected to hit its peak of 30,247 active cases according to the ‘most likely’ model on July 5 and 32,909 active cases as per the SEIR model on July 6.
Gujarat has been projected to hit its peak of 6,761 active cases according to the ‘most likely’ model and 7,044 active cases as per the SEIR model both on June 29.
The report also said that West Bengal is projected to hit its peak of 7,149 active cases according to the ‘most likely’ model and 10,417 active cases as per the SEIR model both on June 30.
The two metros Mumbai and Chennai are projected to hit their peaks of 37,194 active cases and 21,268 active cases on June 30 and July 3, respectively, according to the most likely model. As per the SEIR model, Mumbai is projected to hit is peak of 38,899 active cases on July 15 and Chennai will reach its peak of 19,054 active cases on July 6, respectively, it added.
Times Fact-India Outbreak Report also said that their models are dynamic and with fresh data drawn from central government, state government bulletins, and daily updates provided by the Health Ministry, the graphs are changed accordingly on a weekly basis, thereby presenting the best projections.