The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that the monsoon in Jammu and Kashmir as well as Ladakh will be normal this year.
As per the Long Range Forecast, IMD said, the southwest Monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be normal (96% (± 5% model error) of Long Period Avg.).
Importaly, the IMD has said that currently neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation conditions were prevailing in the country, but El Nino conditions—characterised by an unusual warming of waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which has a high correlation with weaker monsoon rains— were likely to develop in July. The IMD at the same time underlined that not all El Nino years see bad monsoons and that the May forecast will serve as a crucial barometer of the attitude.
If the forecasts come true, it will be the fifth straight year when the southwest monsoon will be ‘normal’
While a good monsoon is better for agriculture and allied fields, it is sometimes also associated with the risks such as floods. When bad, it results in drought. There is thus the flip side of a forecast and a plentiful monsoon may lead to flash floods, landslides and disease outbreaks.
In such a scenario, the government needs to be better prepared to meet any eventuality caused by excessive rains. It can wipe out the potential gains for agriculture and allied sectors.
The administration needs to keep in mind the scientific consensus that future rain spells may be short, often unpredictable and very heavy, influenced by a changing climate. There is a need to invest in reliable infrastructure to mitigate the impact of flooding and avert disasters like one in 2014 when almost half of Srinagar and many villages in south Kashmir were devastated.
Previously, the official machinery was at occasions found to be hesitant to act against the encroachment of water bodies’ catchments, river courses and floodplains. The government must draw up various plans clearly and in an era of climate change, the same is a must, not a choice.
In Kashmir context, plentiful rains may bring flooding into picture, more when there are chances of glacier melt amid the rise in mercury. Already water level is high in water bodies including Jhelum especially after plenty of rains earlier in June this year.
There is as such a need to invest in reliable infrastructure to mitigate the impact of flooding and avert disasters like one in 2014.
