The Valley of Kashmir has not only undergone a transition from winter to spring with the arrival of warmer weather; we are also witnessing many historical highs in February 2023 which will be confirmed by recording consistent new temperature and broken record high temperature days throughout February 2023 as was seen with the daily values.
The most alarming aspect of this climatic period is that it has the most significant impact on winter tourism as evidenced by the ski resorts in Kashmir, which rely on the winter weather during the year.
To fully appreciate how unique the month of February has been in terms of the maximum temperatures observed and how far these temperatures exceeded past maximums; it is sufficient to consider the daily temperatures observed during the month.
The continuous amount of bright sunlight with little to no precipitation or significant western disturbance events resulted in much more warmth during this period, turning the coldest month of the year into an extended period of warm temperatures occurring during an unseasonable period of the year.
Although the immediate response would be one of comfort and improved weather, the longer-term response will be a much more concerning issue.
Ultimately, this type of event is not only very significant from a statistical perspective.
The long-term implications for the environment and the economy will be substantial for the region. Water insecurity in Kashmir is completely reliant on snow accumulation over the course of a winter season in high elevation areas.
The accumulation of snow in the mountains of Kashmir serves as a frozen water reservoir that serves to supply the majority of surface water to rivers, streams, and irrigation systems in the spring and summer after the snow melts.
The absence of snow this season has created concern for future water shortages heading into summertime, which will impact not only the amount of potable water available to us but also threaten the agricultural production that the Valley relies upon for its livelihood.
Additionally, the agricultural calendar is also at risk. Agriculture comprises the foundation of Kashmir’s economy, and it reacts strictly to the cues provided by the changing of seasons.
According to experts with SKUAST-Kashmir, even small increases in average temperature will result in earlier flowering in orchards. These new flowering trees will face the risk of occurring before the danger of frost has passed, thus creating a risk to both the fruit that will be produced and the already fragile ecosystem.
As we enter March, it is essential to remember that February was not simply an
example of unseasonably late temperatures, but rather indicative of what lies ahead.
February has recorded the hottest average temperature recorded for February in the history of the Valley, and if we do not take time to acknowledge what is happening relating to changing climate, then we risk having the mildest average winter temperatures become the new normal. All of the historic records from previous winters are becoming non-existent, thus making it impossible for us to make use of the seasonal weather patterns of the past as a means to predict what we have to look forward to in the future.
