Seasonal precipitation from October 1 to December 25 in Jammu and Kashmir reveals a situation with alarming disparity. Jammu Division experienced almost normal precipitation levels with a shortfall of only 9 percent, while the Kashmir Division is at a deficit of 44 percent.
This significant difference between the two divisions illustrates a much larger complex climatic situation. While Jammu Division’s near-normal precipitation levels provide some level of comfort, it is important to note that Kashmir Division’s winter precipitation provides the foundation for both regional agricultural and hydrological cycles.
October through December are vital months for the following reasons: First, they recharge groundwater, and Second, they supply the essential water component for the entire region.
The winter precipitation creates snowpack, which is, in essence, a large reservoir of water that when it melts gradually over the course of the following spring and summer replenishes rivers, provides irrigation for crop production and supplies drinking water.
Currently, the Kashmir Division is at a 44 percent shortfall which essentially can be considered a loan against the region’s ecological and economic security for the following year.
As an example, agriculture, which is fundamental to the economy of the valley, is currently facing immediate threats due to the shortfall in winter precipitation.
Additionally, a lack of winter precipitation can significantly reduce both the yield and quality of crops, thus impacting farmers who are already dealing with multiple challenges.
Additionally, if this continues, streams and springs will eventually begin to run low as the year progresses, creating a challenging situation for rural and urban areas.
Although a single season’s weather data is incapable of determining whether these changes are long-term changes in climate, the changes do reflect an increase in weather unpredictability and have shifted from one type of precipitation to another across the entire Himalayan region.
Increased dryness during the winters as a result of unpredictable monsoons creates a situation of dual threat – both to the ecosystem and to communities that depend on it, due to how communities and ecosystems have adjusted to the steady, predictable patterns of nature in terms of agricultural practices and community living.
The efforts taken to meet the challenges presented by the lack of monsoons must be a multi-faceted and multi-layered response. The first step is for the people of the region to create a heightened awareness regarding the importance of conserving water and creating methods to conserve water.
Agricultural advisory services must be established to assist farmers with water conservation methods and crop rotation management techniques in the event of an extended dry season.
In addition, integration of increased water harvesting, crop diversification strategies, improvement to and integration of micro-scale meteorological forecasting, and protection to fragile water basins will become part of the Regional Development Plan as a top priority for the Emerging Economy of the Region.
