A panel, comprising well-regarded mathematicians and infectious disease experts, appointed by the Union Ministry of Science and Technology, has brought good forecast regarding the course of the covid-19 in India.
By the panel’s estimate, the country has passed its COVID-19 peak in September and the decline in the overall caseload being observed for nearly a month now is to persist.
The virus graph has also fallen in the first fortnight of October in J&K. Less than eight hundred cases have been reported lately even as the mortality rate is also falling significantly. If the current trend continues according to the panel, the pestilence could run its course by February.
While it is reasonable to assume that the committee, comprising seven-member, has been meticulous the caution is that this is still a forecast based on mathematical modelling. So far experience has shown that the contagion defies prediction. There is much about the virus that remains in the realm of the unknown and new experiments show there is still a lot to be known about it.
The hope generated by the panel report about the pandemic having past its peak, therefore, needs to be responded with caution.
Even the experts associated with the pandemic have reiterated time and again that mathematical modelling ought not to be taken plainly.
The winter has knocked on the door and advises by the experts, some of them based on scrupulous surveys would be unwise to be ignored. The recent upsurge of cases in Europe suggests that the winter will be critical in the fight against pestilence. There are chances that the weather may increase the vulnerability of those with respiratory ailments.
By all accounts, it would be early to say that the covid-19 has exhausted. The diminishing rate of the virus should not bring a lowering of the guard. Experts have already warned about the worst case scenario and some say that “we are sitting on a powder keg that could explode any time.” The reality has to be accepted and that is the Covid-19 is far from overcome.
The accelerated transmission of virus within the next few weeks cannot be ruled out especially in wake of the approach by most people towards the pandemic as the caution has been thrown to the wind. Complacency could provide dangerous and such there is a need to keep the guard high by adhering to social distancing norms, wearing masks, and washing etiquettes.